In the week following the EU referendum, we published a quick overview of the institutions with the highest numbers and proportions of EU students, on the assumption that this segment of the higher education market was now under threat.
However, the past few weeks has shown that it is not only EU students but the entire international student market that is now in jeopardy depending on the extent to which the new government follows through on its tough rhetoric.
The saga has played out rather oddly. First, Amber Rudd announced a new crackdown on international students taking ‘low quality’ courses, prompting near-panic in universities. It then emerged that Rudd herself had tried to persuade the Prime Minister to remove students from net migration statistics, which would have removed international students from being the very political football she had kicked during her party conference speech.
The extent of the cabinet split on the matter became even clearer when Philip Hammond said in not so many words that he was supportive of Rudd’s efforts to remove students from net migration, and clearly responded positively to UUK polling that appeared to back his position up. The Chancellor was promptly slapped down by a Downing Street spokesperson the following day, but not until after an afternoon of confusion when another spokesperson had suggested the matter was “under review”.
Review or no review, the whole debate has become caught up in the wider problems the government is now facing in taking unprecedentedly tough action on immigration but also trying to avoid harming a strong British export industry. It is quite the political mess, and despite having friends in high places such as Hammond, and perhaps even Boris Johnson, universities should remain nervous about their long-term prospects for international recruitment.
The saga has evidently damaged the UK higher education brand in overseas markets, particularly in India, where perceptions of the UK as an attractive place to study have been in decline for years. A significant drop in international student recruitment would be a strain across the sector, but the pain would be felt in some institutions more than others.
To that end, I have compiled data from HESA for the 2014-15 academic year to look at which institutions might be most vulnerable to Theresa May’s challenge to create a business model without international student recruitment. I have also compared the numbers of international students with the results of the EU referendum, to try and establish whether areas that voted to Leave have high numbers of student immigrants that may be causing anxiety in those communities.
Where in the UK are international students?
International students are spread across the UK. Northern Ireland has much lower numbers as a proportion than England, Scotland and Wales. International students are roughly evenly split between undergraduates and postgraduates, meaning that postgraduate courses are far more reliant on international students as a proportion of their total.
Total UG international | % UG international | Total PG international | % PG international | |
---|---|---|---|---|
UK | 153745 | 9% | 158265 | 29% |
England | 130310 | 9% | 130885 | 30% |
Northern Ireland | 1695 | 4% | 1100 | 10% |
Scotland | 12860 | 7% | 16345 | 29% |
Wales | 8875 | 8% | 9930 | 35% |
Which universities are most reliant on international undergraduates?
The universities with the highest numbers of international undergraduates are:
Institution | Total UG international | % UG International |
---|---|---|
The University of Manchester | 5135 | 19% |
University College London | 4625 | 27% |
University of the Arts, London | 4530 | 31% |
The University of Liverpool | 4510 | 25% |
Coventry University | 3900 | 18% |
The University of Edinburgh | 3515 | 17% |
University of Nottingham | 3260 | 14% |
The University of Sheffield | 3245 | 17% |
Cardiff University | 2805 | 13% |
University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne | 2755 | 16% |
Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine | 2615 | 29% |
The University of Warwick | 2580 | 17% |
The University of St Andrews | 2505 | 32% |
The University of Exeter | 2505 | 15% |
The University of Westminster | 2495 | 15% |
King's College London | 2320 | 13% |
And the universities with the highest proportions of international undergraduates are:
Institution | Total UG international | % UG International |
---|---|---|
The University of Buckingham | 475 | 41% |
London School of Economics and Political Science | 1690 | 38% |
The University of St Andrews | 2505 | 32% |
University of the Arts, London | 4530 | 31% |
Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine | 2615 | 29% |
University College London | 4625 | 27% |
The School of Oriental and African Studies | 785 | 26% |
The University of Liverpool | 4510 | 25% |
Royal Academy of Music | 85 | 24% |
Royal College of Music | 95 | 22% |
The City University | 2075 | 21% |
The University of Lancaster | 1805 | 20% |
The Liverpool Institute for Performing Arts | 145 | 20% |
The University of Manchester | 5135 | 19% |
The University of Sussex | 1975 | 19% |
Which universities are most reliant on international postgraduates?
The universities with the highest numbers of international postgraduates are:
Institution | Total PG international | % PG International |
---|---|---|
University College London | 4950 | 26% |
The University of Birmingham | 4925 | 35% |
The University of Manchester | 4865 | 41% |
The University of Sheffield | 3905 | 48% |
The University of Oxford | 3560 | 38% |
London School of Economics and Political Science | 3460 | 56% |
Coventry University | 3445 | 57% |
The University of Leicester | 3425 | 49% |
The University of Southampton | 3325 | 43% |
The University of Edinburgh | 3230 | 37% |
Cardiff Metropolitan University | 3045 | 64% |
The University of Leeds | 3040 | 38% |
The City University | 2995 | 35% |
The University of Warwick | 2945 | 33% |
Cardiff University | 2865 | 32% |
University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne | 2845 | 45% |
And the universities with the highest proportions of international postgraduates are:
Institution | Total PG international | % PG International |
---|---|---|
Cardiff Metropolitan University | 3045 | 64% |
Coventry University | 3445 | 57% |
London School of Economics and Political Science | 3460 | 56% |
The University of Sunderland | 1525 | 54% |
University College Birmingham | 250 | 53% |
Brunel University London | 2050 | 51% |
London Business School | 920 | 51% |
The University of Leicester | 3425 | 49% |
The University of Sheffield | 3905 | 48% |
University of Bedfordshire | 1855 | 46% |
University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne | 2845 | 45% |
University of the Arts, London | 1470 | 45% |
Queen Mary University of London | 2000 | 44% |
The University of Southampton | 3325 | 43% |
University of Durham | 1985 | 42% |
Loughborough University | 1440 | 42% |
International students and the Brexit vote
The Prime Minister’s fixation with cutting international student numbers as part of a wider cut-down on immigration has been primarily justified by the Brexit vote, which researchers have shown to be overwhelming to do with dissatisfaction with immigration. However, as you may have already observed from the tables above, large numbers of international students are primarily in areas that voted to Remain in the referendum: London, Scotland, Manchester, and Cardiff in particular.
Institution | Total international students | Remain or Leave | % Leave |
---|---|---|---|
The University of Manchester | 10000 | Strong Remain | 39.64% (Manchester) |
University College London | 9575 | Strong Remain | 25.06% (Camden) |
Coventry University | 7345 | Strong Leave | 55.6% (Coventry) |
The University of Sheffield | 7150 | Narrow Leave | 50.99% (Sheffield) |
The University of Birmingham | 6845 | Narrow Leave | 50.42% (Birmingham) |
The University of Edinburgh | 6745 | Strong Remain | 25.56% (City of Edinburgh) |
The University of Liverpool | 6230 | Strong Remain | 41.81% (Liverpool) |
University of the Arts, London | 6000 | Strong Remain | 25.06% (Camden) |
University of Nottingham | 5710 | Narrow Leave | 50.84% (Nottingham) |
Cardiff University | 5670 | Strong Remain | 39.98% (Cardiff) |
University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne | 5600 | Narrow Remain | 49.4% (Newcastle upon Tyne) |
The University of Warwick | 5525 | Strong Remain | 41.22% (Warwick) |
Areas with high numbers of international students that voted to Leave in June only did so very narrowly, such as Sheffield, Birmingham, Southampton, Canterbury, Colchester, Swansea, and Nottingham. Coventry and Warwick Universities, though based in Coventry, which voted to Leave, have many students living outside the city in Warwick District Council, which voted to Remain.
A very top-level analysis of the referendum result shows a small number of areas that voted strongly to Leave (55% plus) that have a high number of international students, though as can be seen, many of these institutions are well down the list compared to the wider sector. The vast majority of international students appear to reside in areas that voted to Remain in the EU, further underlining how futile a clampdown would likely be in addressing voters’ broader concerns about immigration.
Institution | International students (UG and PG) | % Leave vote of local authority |
---|---|---|
Coventry University | 7345 | 55.6% (Coventry) |
University of Durham | 3680 | 57.55% (County Durham) |
The University of Sunderland | 3535 | 61.34% (Sunderland) |
The University of Portsmouth | 2885 | 58.08% (Portsmouth) |
University of Bedfordshire | 2665 | 56.55% (Luton) |
The University of Hull | 2305 | 67.62% (Kingston upon Hull) |
This analysis is only skin deep. Research has shown that a strong Leave vote did not correlate so much with the size of the immigrant population as with the proportionate change in the immigrant population over the last decade. It nonetheless seems unlikely that in many communities for whom immigration is a big concern that international students are a visible presence. Rather, international students tend to reside in more liberal, cosmopolitan, and relatively wealthy big cities that voted to Remain or only very narrowly to Leave.
Brilliant stuff David.
The headline reliance numbers are interesting but I think can mask the extent to which International students make individual courses/subjects viable at an HEI.
I fear without them Universities will survive but geographical coverage of subjects will suffer, which is bad news for those not willing or able to leave home.
We are competing in a global market but have a government which seems intent on batting for the opposition. While the American, Canadian, Australian and now Irish governments are doing all they can to make International students welcome, the UK government gives off the opposite vibe. And surprise, surprise, it’s already impacting our country’s competitive performance.
Unwilling to wait for the HESA data to come out in January 2017, I submitted an FOI request to the Home Office asking for Tier 4 international student visa applications for 2015 and four years previous. The bad news is that applications dropped by almost 5% in 2015 to 208,385 after two years of stability. India is dropping like a stone with another 13% decline in 2015 – 9,835 compared to over 31,000 in 2011. China continues to flourish with 80,000 applications in 2015 making up over 38% of the UK total. Where is the evidence that International students outstay their welcome? 99.9% of Chinese students return home after completing their degree. We need Amber to turn Green.
Good attempt at analysis but needs more fine tuning on the geographical basis of the Brexit comparison eg Warwick University is not in Warwick and nor do many of its students live there; Coventry University has a large international student body at its London Campus (as do a few others); University of Bedfordshire is not just in Luton but in Bedford as well, etc.
The apparent correlation of the remain vote with high numbers of international students is probably more to do with the location of large universities tending to be linked to a higher proportion of the local population having higher educational attainment, and the very strong correlation of leave voters with lower educational attainment. These are the people HE has failed to reach and it is not going to be changed by just lobbying government, but by universities as a whole working more strongly in these areas to show that they have something to offer the populations.
Policy makers must keep in mind the knowledge and expertise international students sharing to the countries growth. further International students are paying actually the fees of local students so in this way the local residents pay less to get better and better education.